With five games to go the Arsenal need to win 3 to be certain of a top four finish (with goal difference better than all rivals too.
I cannot see Spurs, Newcastle or Chelsea winning all five games so in theory the bar will fall lower.
Now I really do believe that we will win both our next two home matches and therefore retain our five point gap with three to play. By winning both that will put Chelsea pretty much out of the equation for third.
They have some monster games and I do feel their threat will be gone after we play them.
Newcastle have five winnable games and credit to them they have been superb in their last five winning them all. The fact they still have Chelsea to play means our bar of points will be lowered with them cutting each others throats and a draw being perfect. They also have to travel to Wigan and Everton so I cannot see Newcastle winning all five and overturning our five point swing plus massive 17 goal difference.
Finally, Spurs, the wheels HAVE fallen off as the Norwich result will show and although on paper their final five games looks better I just don't see them taking the necessary points to overhaul us. I can see them losing at QPR and both Bolton and Villa away will mean hard work that I feel they have no longer got in their legs to win.
In a nutshell, Arsenal need to win all three home games to secure nine points. We can afford one defeat and we go to Stoke and West Brom and there are points that can be won there.
Arsenal will secure a minimum of 9 points from last 15
Tottenham minimum of 10 points
Newcastle 9 points
Chelsea 9 points
Key games
Arsenal v Chelsea
Chelsea v Newcastle
Stoke v Arsenal
QPR v Tottenham
Everton v Newcastle.


