Those who say it makes no difference to whether he goes any time soon or "earns" another extension off the back of another cup; the only evidence we have is that he has done the latter. We can't be sure he would have stayed had he lost the finals against Hull and Chelsea.
If there's even a slim chance no trophies this season will seal his fate, I want to be given that
Not true - the 3 year extension he was given back in 2011 came on the back of 6 trophyless years and scrapping around in 4th. He's just finished outside the CL places which everyone used to assume kept him in the job and it didn't make a blind bit of difference.
If we lost 7-0 in the final and finished 7th, I guarantee he'd still be here next season
I do think that he still had a credit balance with the fans in 2011 which has evaporated year-by-year since. There was never any serious pressure on him from within the fan-base back then (though a small minority of us knew he had shot his bolt). Three years later was different. There was a consensus of opinion that he would have either been persuaded to leave or walked had we lost to Wigan in the semi or Hull in the final. The Kieran Gibbs clearance off the line at 2-0 was widely regarded as the moment that saved his job. Of course we can never prove it.....but I would have loved the chance to test it. Last season he was on the ropes in March after that wretched run of League form and the humiliation against Bayern both home and away. Not only was most of the fanbase against him, there was evidence he had powerful enemies on the board too. Again, the common consensus is that the FA Cup wins against City and Chelsea dampened any prospect that this campaign against him being given yet another extension would win the day. Again, it can never be proved that he would have left without the FA Cup win. But again, I would have loved the chance to test it.
Just look at the headline which The Gooner editor, who is the most eloquent and consistent advocate of "Wenger Out" I know - ran with in his account of the Chelsea match: "Arsene gives the fans another day out at Wembley". If this is his take on it, how do we expect the rest of our fanbase to see it, let alone our board?
So: while I take your point about 2011, I believe he has become considerably more vulnerable since then, and it is at least possible that the cups have saved his bacon. All I ask is that we get the chance to test that theory. I just fear that City's fixture congestion will make it a closer contest than it deserves to be......