Premier League Betting Log - ManagerXI

[ManagerXI]

Hey Folks,

I'm a betting enthusiast when it comes to the Premier League and enjoy analysing each weeks fixtures to find that one bet that they bookies overpriced due to recent form and injuries.

Hopefully this thread will make ye a profit and provide a bit of banter along the way. I will be betting level stakes on every bet and recording the log using level stakes ROI - any not showing any supporters bias along the way:)

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I'm going to start off the log with what I consider to be a very safe bet, albeit with low odds, I think this bet has a ROI of 28% which any gambler will tell you is extremely good.

Man City v Swansea Betting Preview:

Man City are already 8 points off the lead in the Premier League so they have to start racking up the wins with Chelsea talking of going the whole season unbeaten but Swansea are a very tough test with a tight defense when they play away to the big teams and we can expect them to set up to be extremely difficult to break down especially with Aguero back to his best.

Everyone is impressed with Swansea except apparently the bookies so we have seen a drift in Man City to win from 1.29 to 1.4 which is still too short in my opinion against a team of Swansea's quality, especially after they outplayed Arsenal in their last game so confidence will be high. In Montero, Swansea have a top class winger and Bony up front can put away any chances that he can create. Swansea also were able to stop Arsenal from having a shot on target for the opening 43 minutes so they won't be completely overrun by the Man City attack. Gylfi Sigurdsson has scored or assisted nine Premier League goals this season and looks dangerous every time he receives the ball.

Man City also have to think about their Champions League match against Bayern Munich on Tuesday which they need to win to have any chance of progressing in the tournament so their motivation in this game might not be as high as expected even with their poor recent form of 1 win from their last 6 in all competitions whereas Swansea have only lost once in their last 6 league games. Only Southampton (7) have kept more clean sheets than Swansea (5) during this campaign.

David Silva (knee), left-back Aleksandar Kolarov and striker Edin Dzeko (both calf) have all been ruled out for Man City. Vincent Kompany was pictured back in training on Thursday and could face Swansea. Jonjo Shelvey will come back for Swansea after finishing his suspension for a red card against Everton.

Recommended Bet: Swansea +2 Asian Handicap - 1.425 Bet365

[officepest]

[Rosie_titters]

Good luck

Wasn't there another bloke on here about a year ago, predicting football scores, got a few wrong and totally disappeared. I Wonder what happen to him

[ManagerXI]

And we're off with a win: Man City 2-1 Swansea

[Theoperator]

Good luck

Wasn't there another bloke on here about a year ago, predicting football scores, got a few wrong and totally disappeared. I Wonder what happen to him

Last seen selling The Big Issue

[skizz_b]

Good luck

Wasn't there another bloke on here about a year ago, predicting football scores, got a few wrong and totally disappeared. I Wonder what happen to him

He was on during the World Cup, blew about £2k profit if I recall

[ManagerXI]

It can happen. Good bankroll management is just as important as picking winners.

All my bets are football related in a small range of markets so I bet level stakes throughout the season for a small percentage of my bankroll so my 'risk of ruin' in one season is almost 0%.

I adjust my level stakes amount at the start of every season depending on my starting bankroll but when I was starting out about 14 years ago I made all the same mistakes that every new bettor makes. After a few losing bets and busted bankrolls some people develop the necessary discipline.

[ManagerXI]

Man Utd v Hull Betting Preview:

This is not a great weekend for Premier League bettors with short prices, loss of form for a few teams, midweek European matches and important injuries to the old reliables which all make this weekends meetings a minefield due to the home/away fixtures so this weekends bet will be slightly higher risk than normal.

Man Utd are starting to look like a more coherent attacking unit, even with Fellani running around banging into people but it is their defence that remains their achilles heel. They started the last game against Arsenal with a back 3 of Blackett, McNair and Smalling which is easily the most inexperienced defence in the league which is only being saved by De Gea pulling off a string of fine saves. Luke Shaw is unavailable after twisting his ankle to add to the defensive injury list of Blind, Rafael, Jones and Evans. Radamel Falcao and Marcos Rojo have returned for United.

While on paper Hull would be considered relegation fodder as they have won 2 from 12 games and conceded 17 goals in the process they have had an incredibly tough run of fixtures in that stretch facing most of the top teams but have showed they possess a goal threat having scored 2 goals against both Arsenal and Man City. Gaston Ramieriez will be suspended after his red card against Tottenham last week while Hull will also be without striker Abel Hernandez for the game. The Uruguayan has had to travel back to South America where his partner is due to give birth.
While I expect Man Utd to win this game their odds of 1.33 are far too short but due to their defense they will have to score at least twice more than likely to win the game. Manchester United have won the last nine straight matches against Hull City including all six meetings in the Barclays Premier League. Hull have won just one of their last 11 Premier League away games (D4 L6).

Recommended Bet: Man Utd to score 2 or 3 Goals - 1.95 Ladbrokes (Home Team Goal Bands)

Man Utd: De Gea, Smalling, Carrick, Rojo, Valencia, Fellaini, Mata, Di Maria, Young, Rooney, van Persie
Hull: McGregor, Chester, Dawson, Davies, Robertson, Brady, Diame, Elmohamady, Livermore, Ben Arfa, Jelavic

[ManagerXI]

Man Utd 3-0 Hull

Utd looked very slick today and it was good to see Mata back playing in the center. Falcao returned from injury and looked dangerous so we will see now how Van Gaal will fit him, Rooney and Van Persie into the same team.

The next round of Premier League fixtures starts on Tuesday so I will be back then with my next bet.

[ManagerXI]

West Brom v West Ham:

West Brom (15th) host West Ham (5th) in this evening’s game. West Brom are on a bad run of form at the moment with just 1 win from their last 6 league games and having failed to score in their last 3. In Berahino they have a good goal threat with 7 goals in 13 appearances this season but unfortunately for West Brom he is really their only goal threat as nobody else has scored more than 1 league goal this season whereas West Ham's last seven Premier League goals have been scored by seven different players. West Brom sit just two points above the relegation zone while the impressive West Ham are coming off an impressive win against the inform Newcastle who had won their 6 previous games in all competitions before falling to defeat against West Ham. West Brom record signing striker Brown Ideye was bought for £10m from Dynamo Kiev over the summer but at the moment he is struggling to make the match day squad and from all appearances looks to be a flop.

West Ham have lost only 2 of their away league games this season while scoring an average of 2 goals in those games and they welcome back Enner Valencia from injury who has been a revelation this season and his pace has troubled every defence he has faced and considering that West Brom have Claudio Yacob suspended for this match who would have been tasked with containing Valencia however that job will fall to Mulumbu tonight and while he is comparable, Yacob would have been better suited to reading the game to cut off Valencia's runs. West Brom also have other important defensive injuries with Jonas Olsson, Silvestre Varela and Sebastien Pocognoli with Cristian Gamboa starting in place of Pocognoli at left-back.

In West Hams last game their defense was immense with a back 4 of Cresswell, Tomkins, Collins and Jenkinson who worked very well together to double up on Newcastles players and cover for eachother when caught out of position with Andy Carroll even running back to defend and if they approach this game in the same way then West Brom will struggle to score.

Up front for West Ham alongside the impressive Valencia is the rejuvenated Stewart Downing who has been incredible for West Ham this season now that he is operating at the tip of a midfield diamond and West Ham are perfectly set up to hit teams on the counter which they should have a lot of success with if West Brom attempt to play an open game tonight. Diafra Sakho (West Ham top scorer) is expected back this weekend after aggravating a back injury but West Ham have a readymade replacement in Andy Carroll who has massively improved his work ethic and is an aerial threat from set pieces.

In West Broms last game against Arsenal they were totally dominated for the opening 75 minutes and allowed Arsenal a lot of scoring opportunities while in the game before that West Brom allowed Chelsea 21 shots on goal and West Brom have now won just 3 of their last 16 league games, 2 of which were against Burnley and Leicester. Five of the last seven Premier League meetings between West Ham and West Brom have ended as draws, with one win apiece in the other games in that run.

Recommended Bet: West Ham to win or draw (double chance) - 1.57 Coral

[ManagerXI]

Captain Kevin Nolans return to the West Ham starting lineup in place of Mark Noble was the catalyst for their come from behind win at West Ham who held on for an impressive win in a typically hard fought manner even when West Brom played with 5 strikers in the closing minutes in what could be best described as a 3-2-1-4 formation with West Brom goalkeeper Ben Foster also wandering around in the West Ham half.

West Brom 1-2 West Ham

[Rosie_titters]

3 out of 3 - Can't argue with that


Well Done

[ManagerXI]

Aston Villa v Leicester Betting Preview:

After avoiding the carnage yesterday where Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham all failed to win odds on against inferior teams I am looking to the bottom of the table for a bet today.

Aston Villa have been performing below expectation this season with a poor record of W4 D4 L6 and they lie in 12th position and this can be largely explained by their lack of goals as they have scored just 8 goals in 14 matches, the lowest in the league. Their form in the league is not great either with a record in their last 6 games of W1 D3 L2 however they are improving now on their overall season form without a defeat in their last 4 league games with draws in that run against this seasons surprise packages West Ham and Southampton and it should be noted that their last 4 home league games were against Southampton, Tottenham, Man City and Arsenal so their home stats are skewed by such a run against the top teams at a time when they were in good form also.

Regarding their lack of goals this season they have welcomed back last seasons top scorer Christian Benteke in their last game after a long injury layoff and he duly scored the winner in that game so now that Villa can go back to playing with their preferred front 3 of Benteke, Agbonlahor and Weimann we should see their average goals per game increase however Weimann will be suspended for this game due to an accumulation of yellow cards. There are some issues with Villas defence at the moment with injuries to Baker, Senderous and Vlaar but their center back stand in's of Okore and Clark have been performing reasonably well while they have the experience of fullbacks Hutton and Cissokho to help negate the threat of Leicesters wingers Schlupp and Mahrez who are starting to find form however as Leicester are playing two out and out wingers with two strikers they have left themselves a bit short handed in the center of the park where Villas 3 man midfield of Cleverly, Westwood and Sanchez can dominate proceedings in the absence of Joe Cole who is out injured for the next two weeks.

Leicester have failed to win a game in the league since beating Man Utd back in September - a run that stretches 9 games including 7 losses and they have the second worse away record in the league with 6 losses in 7 games while scoring just 3 goals and they sit at the bottom of the table as they are the most out of form team in the league at the moment with a record in their last 6 league games of W0 D1 L5 and just before their first goal against QPR they had gone 504 minutes with scoring and failed to get a shot on target at Southampton.

Leicester captain, Wes Morgan, is suspended for this match and his absence will be a big loss in defence, especially when defending set pieces. David Nugent is a doubt with illness which has affected some of the squad but manager Nigel Pearson, who did not name others who were laid low, hopes any bug would have cleared by Sunday.

There is a high likelihood this game will end in a draw with Leicester sitting back and coming to Villa for a draw to stop their losing streak away from home but with Bentekes return they have a player who can unlock a tight defence if he can link up well with Agbonlahor whose pace on the wing will cause problems for Leicester even though the market does not fully agree with me as Villa have gone from 2.3 to 2.55 for the win.

Rcommended Bet: Aston Villa 'Draw No Bet' - 1.73 BetVictor

[ManagerXI]

Villa did the business despite Leicesters best efforts to send their midfielders to the emergency room while Leicesters main goal threat Leonardo Ulloa also had to go off injured after a tough retaliatory tackle. This was a particularly tough week for stats based gamblers where almost every game bucked the trend but there are two games this weekend that jumped out at me as a good bet so I will post one up after I have researched both fully.

Aston Villa 2-1 Leicester

[ManagerXI]

This is not a tip but an example of two bets at the same odds but with vastly different expected values.

Paddy Power are offering 1.44 on Arsenal to beat Newcastle this weekend after Newcastle beat league leaders Chelsea last weekend and they are offering 1.44 on Everton to beat QPR who are missing their top scorer and best player Charlie Austin through suspension.

If you want to practice trying to assess value you could compare these two games and try to decide the expected winning percentage of both Arsenal and Everton and from that the value offered by the odds.

I will be back with a tip on Saturday morning.