€200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division) & Betting Information

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Postby Division » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:51 pm

Spain 3-0 Italy (Bet Won)

Balance: €490

English Premier League
Man City v Liverpool
Bet: Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Coral
Estimated Win Percentage: 65.8%
Stake: €49

English Premier League
Stoke v Manchester United
Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Goals @ 2.1 Bet Victor
Estimated Win Percentage: 54.1%
Stake: €49

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Postby Division » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:13 am

Man City 5-0 Liverpool (Bet Lost)
Stoke 2-2 Man Utd (Bet Lost)

Balance: €392

Champions League
Celtic v PSG
Bet: PSG -1 @ 1.65 BetStars
Estimated Win Percentage: 70.9%
Stake: €39

Champions League
Barcelona v Juventus
Bet: Juventus +2 @ 1.44 BetStars
Estimated Win Percentage: 78.8%
Stake: €39

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Postby Division » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:42 pm

Celtic 0-5 PSG (Bet Won)
Barcelona 3-0 Juventus (Bet Lost)

Balance: €378

English Premier League
Liverpool v Man Utd
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 BetStars
Estimated Win Percentage: 64%
Stake: €37

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Division
Posts: 105
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Postby Division » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:32 pm

English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Bet: Chelsea Win To Nil @ 2.3 Ladbrokes
Estimated Win Percentage: 52%
Stake: €37

Block93
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Postby Block93 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:35 pm

I look at your bets and results and agree with most of your forecasts. However you go for premier league and CL and I am convinced there is much more value in, say, lower English leagues 1,2 and the low Scottish leagues. Premier league teams have huge squads and with injuries and suspensions they are not that much weaker which is why you get unexpected results, as the difference in quality is never massive. In the lower divisions, squads are maybe 17/18 and a couple of absentees has a much bigger impact. You need to do your research, but a 4/6 shot pays the same whether it’s Barcelona or Elgin City after all! Just a thought. I always say I will sit down one day and link up with people who knows what is going on at their lower league club injury-wise..I really think that’s where the real potential lies. You can even bet on the Vanorama South with Bet365!

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Postby Division » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:44 am

Liverpool 0-0 Man Utd (Bet Won)
Crystal Palace 2-1 Chelsea (Bet lost)

Balance: €377

English Premier League
Watford v Stoke
Bet: Watford To Win Draw No Bet @ 1.5 Ladbrokes
Estimated Win Percentage: 74%
Stake: €37

€50 free bet on this Saturdays game between Man Utd and Tottenham available @ http://bit.ly/C10kFacebook

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

Postby Division » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:58 am

I look at your bets and results and agree with most of your forecasts. However you go for premier league and CL and I am convinced there is much more value in, say, lower English leagues 1,2 and the low Scottish leagues. Premier league teams have huge squads and with injuries and suspensions they are not that much weaker which is why you get unexpected results, as the difference in quality is never massive. In the lower divisions, squads are maybe 17/18 and a couple of absentees has a much bigger impact. You need to do your research, but a 4/6 shot pays the same whether it’s Barcelona or Elgin City after all! Just a thought. I always say I will sit down one day and link up with people who knows what is going on at their lower league club injury-wise..I really think that’s where the real potential lies. You can even bet on the Vanorama South with Bet365!
I agree with all this but with some caveats.

The top leagues have much more statistics available so if you can make use of them efficiently in combination with knowledge of the teams and experience you can get closer to the true probability of an event occurring. The bookies job is not to assign the exact probabilities, its to assign odds that will balance their books so there is value to be had if you know how to price up a game.

If you could form a group that involved people who would follow each team from a lower league in extensive detail and they were able to articulate their opinion on the team and the players and get together and discuss how they see an upcoming game playing out then the group overall might have a big edge on the bookmakers. Its a very difficult thing to set up and maintain. A fan of football does not mean they will be a good sports bettor so it takes a set of skills that not many people have and then you need everyone to put the work in each week. Its there to be done but the bookmakers are very wary of this and will close accounts very quickly and won't have much trouble linking the accounts of the group members while there is not enough liquidity on the exchanges in the lower leagues to maintain a group this size sooner or later.

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Division
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One page with all the info you want?

Postby Division » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:54 am

I have seen many people say they can't research games properly before betting as they don't have the time to compile some statistics for each game or they are not sure where to get the stats or they are not willing to put the work in as they don't bet much so its not worth spending a lot of time on research and analysis.

If you could go to one webpage for each game with a range of statistics to help you choose a bet what information do you want on this page?

The basic info to start with would be:

Image

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DB10GOONER
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Re: One page with all the info you want?

Postby DB10GOONER » Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:20 am

Sorry mate, this doesn't need its own thread. Merging it with your betting thread and retitling to reflect that.

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Division
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division) & Betting Information

Postby Division » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:30 am

English Premier League
Man Utd v Tottenham
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 65%
Stake: €37

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Division
Posts: 105
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division) & Betting Information

Postby Division » Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Liverpool 0-0 Man Utd (Bet Won)
Crystal Palace 2-1 Chelsea (Bet lost)
Watford 0-1 Stoke (Bet Lost)
Man Utd 1-0 Tottenham (Bet Won)

Balance: €367

English Premier League
Chelsea v Man Utd
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 BetFred
Estimated Win Percentage: 69%
Stake: €36

English Premier League
Everton v Watford
Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Total Goals @ 2.1 Bet Victor
Estimated Win Percentage: 54%
Stake: €36

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Division
Posts: 105
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Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division) & Betting Information

Postby Division » Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:00 am

Chelsea 1-0 Man Utd (Bet Won)
Everton 3-2 Watford (Bet Lost)

Balance: €353

World Cup Qualifier
Denmark v Republic of Ireland
Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Total Goals @ 2.1 Bet Victor
Estimated Win Percentage: 56%
Stake: €35

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Division
Posts: 105
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:39 am

Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division) & Betting Information

Postby Division » Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:43 am

Denmark 0-0 Ireland (Bet Lost)

Balance: €318

English Premier League
Arsenal v Tottenham
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.53 Bet365
Estimated Win Percentage: 72%
Stake: €31

English Premier League
Leicester v Man City
Bet: Man City To Win & Both Teams To Score @ 2.6 BetFred
Estimated Win Percentage: 43%
Stake: €31

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Division
Posts: 105
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:39 am

Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division) & Betting Information

Postby Division » Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:57 pm

Arsenal 2-0 Tottenham (Bet Lost)
Leicester 0-2 Man City (Bet Lost)

Balance: €256

English Premier League
Newcastle v Watford
Bet: Watford Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.7 Bet365
Estimated Win Percentage: 83%
Stake: €25

English Premier League
Man Utd v Brighton
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.5 Ladbrokes
Estimated Win Percentage: 82%
Stake: €25

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Division
Posts: 105
Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:39 am

Re: €200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division) & Betting Information

Postby Division » Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:28 pm

Newcastle 0-3 Watford (Bet Won)
Man Utd 1-0 Brighton (Bet Won)

Balance: €286

English Premier League
Stoke v Liverpool
Bet: over 2.5 goals @ 1.57 Bet365
Estimated Win Percentage: 71%
Stake: €28

English Premier League
Chelsea v Swansea
Bet: under 3.5 goals @ 1.57 Ladbrokes
Estimated Win Percentage: 85%
Stake: €28


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