The Gooner Forum

DB10GOONER wrote:Fucking Leicester fucked me over by reaching safety. Had a tenner on them at 25/1 to go down. Bastards.

Yer shit and you know you are!...

Napoli 4-1 Fiorentina (Bet Won)
Malaga 0-2 Real Madrid (Bet Lost)

Balance: €506

The forum might get a bit quieter over the summer months so I can send tips by WhatsApp also. Send a message to +353857415392 and I'll start a WhatsApp broadcast list.

Had my biggest ever matched betting win last Thursday thanks to Arry Kane scoring a hatrick verus Leicester. Made £2.4k out of betfred placing bets online and in a few local shops. Betfred treble the odds if the FGS selection scores a hatrick, Kane duly obliged. If anyone. Is interested in the maths let me know I will post.

Very nice. That was a great bet but in hindsight they are all good. Great win. Good to know BetFred will treble it, most will just double it. Its the little things that can make a big difference to your bank balance at the end of the season.

I have got lucky this season with spreads on a correct score format with Sporting Index - I do team to score 4+ and win - normally pays around 42x the stake, though you lose about 8x if it doesn't happen, but you can reduce that if you get out early. Only do it on live TV matches so I can watch, and can close out bets in running if it looks iffy - only embarrassment is that my biggest results have been on Spurs. Still, a few hundred softens the blow a bit, and they do keep scoring lots of goals...

Irish Premier Division
Drogheda v Bray Wanderers
Bet: Bray Wanderers To Win @ 1.73 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 63%
Stake: €25

Block93 wrote:I have got lucky this season with spreads...

I haven't done any spread betting. What (conservative) bankroll management strategy would you recommend for this?

Division wrote:

Block93 wrote:I have got lucky this season with spreads...

I haven't done any spread betting. What (conservative) bankroll management strategy would you recommend for this?

I think the wisest decision is to buy the particular spread, rather than sell, as the sell can be open ended, the buy not so.

For example, let's say you have a spread on bookings in an average game - Arsenal v Leicester for example.

The spread will be around 37-42. A yellow card is 10 points, a red 25. So they are expecting 4 bookings. (Man U v Liverpool might be 67-72)

You bet £10 a point. If you 'sell' (ie you think there will be fewer bookings than 4), and there are no bookings, ie 0 points, then you will win 37x£10, ie £370.

The problem arises if you sell, and then there are fisticuffs, reds and all sorts, and you get to a points count of say, 120. You have sold the bet, and suddenly you are paying out 120 minus 37, which is 83x£10, ie £830.

By buying bookings, the very maximum downside is 42x your bet.

Be careful with spreads, and maybe start off betting £1 a point. Watching a game on TV when you have in-running spreads going makes even Swansea v Burnley an avid watch, trust me!! Keep your iPhone handy and logged in to the index!!

Drogheda 0-0 Bray Wanderers (Bet Lost)

Balance: €481

Europa League
Ajax v Man Utd
Bet: Exactly 2 or 3 Goals @ 2.0 Stan James
Expected Win Percentage: 55%
Stake: €48

Division wrote:Very nice. That was a great bet but in hindsight they are all good. Great win. Good to know BetFred will treble it, most will just double it. Its the little things that can make a big difference to your bank balance at the end of the season.

Matched betting isn't about hindsight. it's using the exchange to lay off risk and putting yourself in +ev situations. I backed Kane to the tune of £400 in total but because I laid off at the exchange, my actual exposure to the bet was no more than a £100 loss. This created a situation where the odds I was giving myself where far superior than just punting on Betfred alone (or any other bookie). It is overcoming bookie edge in their pricing that makes matched bettting work. This is an extreme promotion because the payouts can be high, but you can go weeks without a hit. Regardless if you trust the maths you will comfortably make a profit over the season. I have now made well over £15k doing matched betting since I started a year ago, and a lot of it was on much lower risk promotions than DDHH.

Ajax 0-2 Man Utd (Bet Won)

Balance: €529

Betting Log Summary

Number of bets: 30
Bets Won: 22
Profit: €329
Total Staked: €1,043
Yield: 31.54%
Level Stakes ROI: 33.96%*

*If you bet €100 on each selection you would have a profit of €1,019

So far so good.

I've had this gut feeling all week so I just put a tenner on us to beat the chav 3-1 at 40/1 with PP online.

Yeah - I know!

Irish Premier Division
Cork v Shamrock Rovers
Bet: Cork To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
Estimated Win Percentage: 76%
Stake €52

Cork v Shamrock looks a dead cert, so 8/15 seems generous. Can we assume that Cork are putting out their first team, and that their players aren't on the beach having won the title by a mile?

I am assuming you have a bit of local knowledge?