The Gooner Forum

Betting Round 2:

English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Southampton
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
Stake: €82

Spanish Primera Division
Barcelona v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
Stake: €102

Champions League
Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
Stake: €98

Results - Betting Round 2

Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund

Current Balance: €294

Betting Round 3:

English Premier League
Everton v Arsenal
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
Stake: €81

English Premier League
West Ham v Burnley
Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
Stake: €108

English Premier League
Crystal Palace v Man Utd
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
Stake: €105

Results - Betting Round 3

Everton 2-1 Arsenal
West Ham 1-0 Burnley
Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

Current Balance: €406

Betting Round 4:

English Premier League
Tottenham v Burnley
Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
Stake: €99

English Premier League
West Ham v Hull
Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
Stake: €152

English Premier League
Everton v Liverpool
Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
Stake: €155

Good to see Division winning well

I have gone for

Chelsea WIN at Palace 3/5
West Ham WIN 13/20
City Arsenal BOTH teams to score 8/15

3.0478/1

The Hoffenheim DRAW with Dortmund was a lovely 3/1 single result for me yesterday, and the Leicester thrashing of Citeh was most welcome, although Liverpools unbeaten run got smashed by Bournemouth which bust my coupon....

Teams with long sequences which have now been broken,IE Coupon-busters",Arsenal,Leicester,Everton,Liverpool and Totnum....

Most weeks there is a coupon buster. I never do accumulators. Far too frustrating:)

Most of the time the odds on these 'sure things' are -EV. If you do a 4 or 5 fold accumulator you are basically giving half your stake to the bookmaker every week with no risk to them. When the punter wins they bet more the next time in a -EV accum again so they can give the money to the bookmaker faster. Its ridiculous to see someone doing it every weekend. Its really not a fair fight with the bookmakers.

Allgunsblazin wrote:Good to see Division winning well

I have gone for

Chelsea WIN at Palace 3/5
West Ham WIN 13/20
City Arsenal BOTH teams to score 8/15

3.0478/1

The Hoffenheim DRAW with Dortmund was a lovely 3/1 single result for me yesterday, and the Leicester thrashing of Citeh was most welcome, although Liverpools unbeaten run got smashed by Bournemouth which bust my coupon....

Teams with long sequences which have now been broken,IE Coupon-busters",Arsenal,Leicester,Everton,Liverpool and Totnum....

Get in!.....

Good luck, you can do it!

Rosie_titters wrote:

nut flush gooner wrote:Will be following this with interest, I turned from punter to matched bettor this year. If you can make money purely from sports analysis and understanding of value then fair play to you.

How's the old matching betting going NFG?. I'm still going at it as well. Done virtually all the sign up offers. Apart from the odd dodgy bonus ones where you have to roll over a shed load of times.

Found Monday to Friday is pretty slow for offers. But Saturday and Sunday is where all the fun begins. Doing occassional Acca's and e/w arbing.

Hope you are still making a good few quid.

Sorry mate for the delay in replying, I have been focusing on setting up a new blog which has taken up most of my time. The blog will feature the service (amongst other personal finance matters) I use for matched betting.

After my illness in August I stopped recording my matched betting activity but at that stage in 5 months I had made 6k doing 2/3hours a day. I started recording my activity again this month and have made £1.5k including £500 on ibrahimovich scoring 2 goals last weekend. So officially I have made £7.5k but with the unrecorded bets it's probably somewhere between £9-£10k.

I am now gubbed from betfair, bet365, paddy power and stake restricted on sky/888. Despite this there are still loads of opportunities both online and in shops and my blog will feature some sort of profit challenge. I am also planning on offering mentoring for newbies.

Last night I used matched betting techniques backing lukaku as first gs in the Merseyside derby. Backed him with betfred for £100. Laid the bet off leaving me with a £17 loss. Betfred have a promo that doubles odds if the first gs scores again, and trebles if he scores a hatrick (DDHH). So after the liability in the exchange has been factored in I was risking £17 to win £600 if lukaku scored first and added a second and£1200 if he scored a hatrick. Pretty good value in the scheme of things. It didn't come in but as I said I hit big last weekend with Ibra vs West Brom on this promo.

Division wrote:Do you do matched betting on weekly offers as well as the signup offers? I have noticed a few bookmakers are giving 'enhanced winnings' as free bets rather than cash with no stakeback.

How many bookies have you hit for their offers and how much can be made in a season?

I have done all the signups bar a few stragglers now but yes I do the reloads now. I will probably make around £10k over the period of this footy season but as I get more busy with the blog (which is more of a personal finance than gambling blog) I will taper off the matched betting activity.

The best bookies for football promos are 888 and Betfred.

Not sure if you understand dutching, but I dutch on snooker and tennis promos to get free bets with low qualifying losses. The profits are extracted by backing and laying off the free bets on smarkets or betfair exchange. I am generally extracting 70-80% of each free bet I receive. So if I get a £50 free bet I expect to turn that into around £35 to £40 hard cash.

Results - Betting Round 4

Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
West Ham 1-0 Hull
Everton 0-1 Liverpool

Current Balance: €190

English Premier League
Everton v Man City
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
Stake: €58

English Premier League
Swansea v Arsenal
Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
Stake: €64

Spanish La Liga
Sevilla v Real Madrid
Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
Stake: €68

nut flush gooner wrote:

Rosie_titters wrote:

nut flush gooner wrote:Will be following this with interest, I turned from punter to matched bettor this year. If you can make money purely from sports analysis and understanding of value then fair play to you.

How's the old matching betting going NFG?. I'm still going at it as well. Done virtually all the sign up offers. Apart from the odd dodgy bonus ones where you have to roll over a shed load of times.

Found Monday to Friday is pretty slow for offers. But Saturday and Sunday is where all the fun begins. Doing occassional Acca's and e/w arbing.

Hope you are still making a good few quid.

Sorry mate for the delay in replying, I have been focusing on setting up a new blog which has taken up most of my time. The blog will feature the service (amongst other personal finance matters) I use for matched betting.

After my illness in August I stopped recording my matched betting activity but at that stage in 5 months I had made 6k doing 2/3hours a day. I started recording my activity again this month and have made £1.5k including £500 on ibrahimovich scoring 2 goals last weekend. So officially I have made £7.5k but with the unrecorded bets it's probably somewhere between £9-£10k.

I am now gubbed from betfair, bet365, paddy power and stake restricted on sky/888. Despite this there are still loads of opportunities both online and in shops and my blog will feature some sort of profit challenge. I am also planning on offering mentoring for newbies.

Last night I used matched betting techniques backing lukaku as first gs in the Merseyside derby. Backed him with betfred for £100. Laid the bet off leaving me with a £17 loss. Betfred have a promo that doubles odds if the first gs scores again, and trebles if he scores a hatrick (DDHH). So after the liability in the exchange has been factored in I was risking £17 to win £600 if lukaku scored first and added a second and£1200 if he scored a hatrick. Pretty good value in the scheme of things. It didn't come in but as I said I hit big last weekend with Ibra vs West Brom on this promo.

Your mistake there was adding the word "Lukaku" to your betslip, mate.

DB10GOONER wrote:

nut flush gooner wrote:

Rosie_titters wrote:

nut flush gooner wrote:Will be following this with interest, I turned from punter to matched bettor this year. If you can make money purely from sports analysis and understanding of value then fair play to you.

How's the old matching betting going NFG?. I'm still going at it as well. Done virtually all the sign up offers. Apart from the odd dodgy bonus ones where you have to roll over a shed load of times.

Found Monday to Friday is pretty slow for offers. But Saturday and Sunday is where all the fun begins. Doing occassional Acca's and e/w arbing.

Hope you are still making a good few quid.

Sorry mate for the delay in replying, I have been focusing on setting up a new blog which has taken up most of my time. The blog will feature the service (amongst other personal finance matters) I use for matched betting.

After my illness in August I stopped recording my matched betting activity but at that stage in 5 months I had made 6k doing 2/3hours a day. I started recording my activity again this month and have made £1.5k including £500 on ibrahimovich scoring 2 goals last weekend. So officially I have made £7.5k but with the unrecorded bets it's probably somewhere between £9-£10k.

I am now gubbed from betfair, bet365, paddy power and stake restricted on sky/888. Despite this there are still loads of opportunities both online and in shops and my blog will feature some sort of profit challenge. I am also planning on offering mentoring for newbies.

Last night I used matched betting techniques backing lukaku as first gs in the Merseyside derby. Backed him with betfred for £100. Laid the bet off leaving me with a £17 loss. Betfred have a promo that doubles odds if the first gs scores again, and trebles if he scores a hatrick (DDHH). So after the liability in the exchange has been factored in I was risking £17 to win £600 if lukaku scored first and added a second and£1200 if he scored a hatrick. Pretty good value in the scheme of things. It didn't come in but as I said I hit big last weekend with Ibra vs West Brom on this promo.

Your mistake there was adding the word "Lukaku" to your betslip, mate.

Not when he's making me money it isn't. Quite an underrated striker imo. Matched betting is about the long run not one game in isolation........

nut flush gooner wrote:

DB10GOONER wrote:

nut flush gooner wrote:

Rosie_titters wrote:

nut flush gooner wrote:Will be following this with interest, I turned from punter to matched bettor this year. If you can make money purely from sports analysis and understanding of value then fair play to you.

How's the old matching betting going NFG?. I'm still going at it as well. Done virtually all the sign up offers. Apart from the odd dodgy bonus ones where you have to roll over a shed load of times.

Found Monday to Friday is pretty slow for offers. But Saturday and Sunday is where all the fun begins. Doing occassional Acca's and e/w arbing.

Hope you are still making a good few quid.

Sorry mate for the delay in replying, I have been focusing on setting up a new blog which has taken up most of my time. The blog will feature the service (amongst other personal finance matters) I use for matched betting.

After my illness in August I stopped recording my matched betting activity but at that stage in 5 months I had made 6k doing 2/3hours a day. I started recording my activity again this month and have made £1.5k including £500 on ibrahimovich scoring 2 goals last weekend. So officially I have made £7.5k but with the unrecorded bets it's probably somewhere between £9-£10k.

I am now gubbed from betfair, bet365, paddy power and stake restricted on sky/888. Despite this there are still loads of opportunities both online and in shops and my blog will feature some sort of profit challenge. I am also planning on offering mentoring for newbies.

Last night I used matched betting techniques backing lukaku as first gs in the Merseyside derby. Backed him with betfred for £100. Laid the bet off leaving me with a £17 loss. Betfred have a promo that doubles odds if the first gs scores again, and trebles if he scores a hatrick (DDHH). So after the liability in the exchange has been factored in I was risking £17 to win £600 if lukaku scored first and added a second and£1200 if he scored a hatrick. Pretty good value in the scheme of things. It didn't come in but as I said I hit big last weekend with Ibra vs West Brom on this promo.

Your mistake there was adding the word "Lukaku" to your betslip, mate.

Not when he's making me money it isn't. Quite an underrated striker imo. Matched betting is about the long run not one game in isolation........

He is absolute gash. How is he making you money?