It could be a long wait for another Arsenal title

Gaps between titles point to many fallow years

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Leaving aside Arsenal’s appalling defensive performances in recent weeks, the bigger picture is interesting or worrying depending on your point of view. The table at the top of this article shows the gaps in years between winning the league for the top 6, and let’s assume Liverpool win the title this season for the sake of argument.

What it suggests is that the longer you go between wins, the less likely you are to win the title. Based on the above, how many more years will it be before Arsenal win the title again?

It demonstrates how football works in cycles. Sure, Manchester United have had a recent uplift with the arrival of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, although they had their keeper to thank for getting a win in their most difficult fixture since he succeeded Jose Mourinho. But whether or not they will win the title again anytime soon is one that we cannot predict. 2013 may become their version of Arsenal’s 2004. It’s strange now to think that the title used to be a carve up between United and Arsenal. No other club got their hands on it between 1996 and 2004 – nine seasons in total. Now, neither club has enjoyed winning the league for six years, assuming neither stage an unlikely comeback in the current campaign.

What the table also suggests is that once you do win a title, it then becomes easier to repeat the feat. Granted, we can look at teams like Blackburn in 1995 and Leicester in 2015 as one-offs, but from the beginning of the Premier League era, other title winners have achieved the feat repeatedly, once they got their first trophy under their belt. Currently, the cycle has seen the prize largely dominated by Manchester City and Chelsea, but there is every indication Liverpool are about to join the party. History suggests they will then win the title more than once over the following seasons.

Of course, finance has a lot to do with success, but as United demonstrate, it is no guarantee. The right manager is key, and the ability to motivate millionaires is probably the main factor in being a successful first team coach at any moneyed club.

Whether Arsenal can any longer be described as one of those is a moot point, but one thing looks unarguable. The statistics show us we may be in for a long wait before we see a first Premier League title lifted at the Emirates.

 

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11
comments

  1. Bard

    Jan 16, 2019, 09:51 #112937

    Be interesting to get the story about Mislintat's possible move. It speculation I know but how are you supposed to continually pull rabbits out of the hat with no money to spend. It's an impossible job. Rumour has it he might go to Bayern, if true why wouldnt you. Good post markym I would have thought Dick is more likely to move than be sacked. There cant be too many established coaches out there who would want to take over a club with no money to invest.

  2. markymark

    Jan 16, 2019, 06:20 #112935

    What I’ve read so far and to be fair Arsenal TV did a pretty good in-depth. Is that it’s a Sanllehi / Mstinlat power battle with Sanllehi dumping the moneyball Gazidis stat model which Sven was working to. Prefering his older style contact book. Edu may be coming ( in the role Mstinlat was promised ) I’d guess for South American contacts . You may find James Rodriguez for 3m loan from Bayern is an example of Sanllehi contact book. It’s a sign of course of fragmentation. My view on Sanllehi is that he was always going to be the power he’s no doubt a master of boardroom politics from his time in the corporate world. Whether he can do the business on an Arsenal future transfer budget rather that Barcelona remains to be seen. I’ve got s feeling Unai’s risk of the sack end of season has also gone up . I could be wrong of course .

  3. mbg

    Jan 15, 2019, 23:12 #112932

    CORNISH, yes and three more European trophies than the last incumbent ever did, and safe to say three more than the next manager to take over if it were to happen.

  4. mbg

    Jan 15, 2019, 23:04 #112931

    Yes apparently Mislintat is leaving going by reports from GMS, apparently being told to find and check on second raters isn't what he signed up for.

  5. arrgee

    Jan 15, 2019, 22:56 #112930

    Since winning their first title on 1931, Arsenal have never gone more than 18 seasons without a title. (1953-1971-1989). I guess the question is can they win it in 2022 and right now it seems unlikely. But then I would have said the same in 1986. Interestingly (or not) that was a centenary year as is 2019 (a centenary in the top flight). Things can change very quickly.

  6. KC38

    Jan 15, 2019, 22:48 #112929

    Bard good call. You have it about right. Kronke is the ultimate nightmare, Emery has to be given time to find out how good or bad he is, but we will not know if he is not supported. It will be clearer in the summer when we see him cleanse the squad. When Wenger was good his first summer saw him get rid of the dross hopefully Emery will impress us.

  7. CORNISH GOONER

    Jan 15, 2019, 19:53 #112927

    I respectfully disagree with the premise " the right manager is key" - just delete the word "manager" & insert "OWNER". All the chickens seem to be coming home to roost as, if the rumours are correct about Sven, the Club rapidly descends into farce. All the previous divisions are re-emerging about which players are crap, the coaching staff, the elite team at the top now being questioned etc. etc. Personally I am incandescent about the flack being taken by Dick - whatever league he managed in, to pull off 3 Europas is an astonishing achievement which included giving the new, can do no wrong Klopperpool a thorough beating. Part of me is wishing he walks as I cannot see any elite manager thriving in this environment where football is tolerated as an irritation in the administration of a global property portfolio.

  8. John F

    Jan 15, 2019, 17:47 #112926

    Le grove is claiming mislintat is leaving which if true would be a bit of a shock considering what he was brought in for. I miss the days when I couldn't care or even know who ran the club or who the backroom staff were.

  9. mbg

    Jan 15, 2019, 16:37 #112923

    No we're not a top/big club anymore and all the rest and we all know who to thank for that. As far as man u are concerned they have the players (and a keeper) to get them out of it, thanks to the old fraud of a manager we used to have and his long failed philosophies we're stuck with and relying on second and third raters all on top dough.

  10. Bard

    Jan 15, 2019, 15:31 #112922

    Interesting piece. What needs factoring in is the massive shift in football revenues and the associated 'billionaires' buying up clubs. We have gradually gone backwards since first Chelsea, Citeh and the like started investing huge sums. In one sense the move to the Emirates was too late to make much difference. What difference there was has been eroded by the 'big money'. Our current predicament is the result of two related issues, having an no owner who doesn't give a f*** and leaving Wenger at the helm for a decade too long. It will take something special to catch up. My view is that its possible to get rid of Stan if there are enough empty seats and he gets the kind of abuse dished out to Wenger. It will massively hurt his brand if that scenario comes to pass. Liverpool got rid of Hicks and Gillett, so it's possible. My worry in the short term is that Dick jumps ship when he sees what the club are really about,which is coasting in mid-table on a shoestring.

  11. RobG

    Jan 15, 2019, 14:30 #112921

    Another way of looking at it, is to take our old friend 'consistency'. Arsenal have been incredibly 'consistent' over the decades as we have won a League Title every decade since the 1930s, with the single fallow exception of the 1960s. We even did it in the 1940s which was only half a decade - so to speak. But that record is about to go. Now you could posit the idea that the 10 - 19 period of the 21st century = 1960s ; and we will thence pick up. Hopefully ? But it will require some real brilliance from Emery and his successor if that is to happen. And it is particularly annoying because - we were told - the whole reason for the stadium move, was to make us world beaters ; or potential world beaters. Hmmmm..? Lots to ponder on, I'm afraid. And little of it comforting. At my age, I do wonder if I will live to see Arsenal win another title ? And I'm not planning on going for a good few years yet.