When Arsenal had conceded just three goals in their opening eight Premier League games, you might have wondered if it could last. The ratio of goals conceded got slightly worse, with 5 in the ‘Against’ column going into the November international break. But Arsenal look the league’s most solid team by a distance. William Saliba and Gabriel have rarely looked more assured. The players in front of them are working in such a tight structure that more clean sheets are almost guaranteed.

But can Arsenal really keep this up, and is Chelsea’s Premier League record in sight?

Mourinho’s Chelsea

The Athletic‘s Duncan Alexander prompted debate in October when he posted that Arsenal were on track to equal Chelsea’s record of just 15 goals conceded all season. That 2004-05 Chelsea side had John Terry, Ashley Cole, Paulo Ferreira, Ricardo Carvalho, William Gallas, and Glen Johnson to choose from in defence. In front of them sat Claude Makelele at his peak. Jose Mourinho’s 4-3-3 dumfounded many opponents in an era in which rigid 4-4-2s ruled.

Arsenal are in different circumstances. Teams know what to expect from Mikel Arteta’s team now. But as much as breaking down Gabriel, Saliba and co’s backline has become a familiar challenge, it hasn’t gotten any easier. In fact, thanks to their defensive record, Arsenal have become clear favourites for the title. A betting site shows Liverpool as outside bets after their troubled start, and Arsenal are considered almost twice as likely as Manchester City to claim the crown.

Solid start

Arsenal started the Premier League season in the way that many expected. The 1-0 away win over Manchester United was another reminder of Arsenal’s ability to protect a lead after Riccardo Calafiori’s early goal. Although United’s performance was praised – not least by Gary Neville who was so inspired he predicted his old side would return to the Champions League – Arsenal’s clean sheet was a sign of things to come.

From there, things have gone mostly swimmingly. The defeat against Liverpool in week three looks an oddity now, given Liverpool’s struggles. Clean sheets against Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace, and Burnley (as well as several more in Europe and the League Cup) followed. Arsenal’s start has made many pundits and fans predict that they’ll win their first title since the 2004 Invincibles season, just before Mourinho arrived in England.

Gabriel and Saliba

After interest from Paris Saint-Germain a year ago, Gabriel may well be happy he stayed in London. His partnership with Saliba is rated by many as the best in Europe. It’s not only goals that the pair prevent – it’s also shots on target. Teams often can’t get a decent shot away, let alone score, and that’s in large part thanks to the central duo’s understanding. They cover for each other, anticipate each other’s movements, and are both dominant in the air if the opposition gets fed up with trying to play through them and instead launch crosses in.

A great defence doesn’t always lead to a title

As The Athletic showed, many of the best Premier League defences haven’t got over the line. Only half of the top 10 teams (in terms of goals conceded) have won the title. Arsenal’s 1998-99 team have the second best record, with 17 conceded, but finished 2nd that season. The two most recent sides on that list are Liverpool and Man City, both in 2018-19. Liverpool conceded one fewer goal (22), but City beat them to the title.

Set piece goals

Aside from the solid defence, the other main theme of Arsenal’s season so far has been set piece goals. They’d scored an incredible 12 before the November break. Two of these came from penalties, but the other 10 were from corners, free-kicks and throw-ins. Corners and free-kicks from Declan Rice continue to be particularly effective. Rice’s all-around game is improving too. In the Champions League against Atletico Madrid, he created 3 chances and completed 45 out of 46 passes (98%). Martin Odegaard’s anticipated return will mean Arteta can choose between him and Bukayo Saka for left-foot crosses.

Odegaard’s presence will also give Arsenal more ways to build up and score away from set pieces. The Arsenal-focused writer Art de Roché recently noted that in Odegaard’s last game, against West Ham, the midfielder dropped deeper alongside Rice in the build up. It was how Arsenal used to build up in the 2021-22 season. With Calafiori often drifting into midfield, Odegaard can then move into more of a number 10 position after the initial build up. Arsenal will have their best creator back, and Viktor Gyökeres will likely see more chances in open play.